Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

Gattuso, J.- P.; Magnan, A.; Bille, R.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Howes, E. L.; Joos, Fortunat; Allemand, D.; Bopp, L.; Cooley, S. R.; Eakin, C. M.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Kelly, R. P.; Portner, H.- O.; Rogers, A. D.; Baxter, J. M.; Laffoley, D.; Osborn, D.; Rankovic, A.; Rochette, J.; Sumaila, U. R.; ... (2015). Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios. Science, 349(6243), aac4722. American Association for the Advancement of Science 10.1126/science.aac4722

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The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics
08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute

UniBE Contributor:

Joos, Fortunat

Subjects:

500 Science > 530 Physics
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology

ISSN:

0036-8075

Publisher:

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Language:

English

Submitter:

Monika Wälti-Stampfli

Date Deposited:

29 Jul 2015 11:56

Last Modified:

19 Oct 2015 09:27

Publisher DOI:

10.1126/science.aac4722

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.70512

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/70512

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