The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Fuchs, S.; Keiler, Margreth; Zischg, Andreas Paul; Bründl, M. (2005). The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 5(6), pp. 893-901. Copernicus Publications 10.5194/nhess-5-893-2005

[img]
Preview
Text
nhess-5-893-2005.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike (CC-BY-NC-SA).

Download (1MB) | Preview

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Geomorphology

UniBE Contributor:

Keiler, Margreth and Zischg, Andreas Paul

Subjects:

900 History > 910 Geography & travel
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology
500 Science

ISSN:

1561-8633

Publisher:

Copernicus Publications

Language:

English

Submitter:

Mirjam Stawicki

Date Deposited:

01 Sep 2015 11:17

Last Modified:

04 Sep 2015 15:52

Publisher DOI:

10.5194/nhess-5-893-2005

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.71344

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/71344

Actions (login required)

Edit item Edit item
Provide Feedback