Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Fuchs, S.; Keiler, Margreth; Meißl, G. (2005). Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 5(6), pp. 821-832. Copernicus Publications 10.5194/nhess-5-821-2005

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The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Geomorphology

UniBE Contributor:

Zischg, Andreas Paul and Keiler, Margreth

Subjects:

500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology
900 History > 910 Geography & travel
500 Science

ISSN:

1561-8633

Publisher:

Copernicus Publications

Language:

English

Submitter:

Mirjam Stawicki

Date Deposited:

01 Sep 2015 10:54

Last Modified:

04 Sep 2015 15:09

Publisher DOI:

10.5194/nhess-5-821-2005

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.71347

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/71347

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