Predicting recurrence after unprovoked venous thromboembolism: prospective validation of the updated Vienna Prediction Model.

Tritschler, Tobias; Méan, Marie; Limacher, Andreas; Rodondi, Nicolas; Aujesky, Drahomir (2015). Predicting recurrence after unprovoked venous thromboembolism: prospective validation of the updated Vienna Prediction Model. Blood, 126(16), pp. 1949-1951. American Society of Hematology 10.1182/blood-2015-04-641225

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The updated Vienna Prediction Model for estimating recurrence risk after an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been developed to identify individuals at low risk for VTE recurrence in whom anticoagulation (AC) therapy may be stopped after 3 months. We externally validated the accuracy of the model to predict recurrent VTE in a prospective multicenter cohort of 156 patients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic unprovoked VTE who had received 3 to 12 months of AC. Patients with a predicted 12-month risk within the lowest quartile based on the updated Vienna Prediction Model were classified as low risk. The risk of recurrent VTE did not differ between low- vs higher-risk patients at 12 months (13% vs 10%; P = .77) and 24 months (15% vs 17%; P = 1.0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting VTE recurrence was 0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.52) at 12 months and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31-0.54) at 24 months. In conclusion, in elderly patients with unprovoked VTE who have stopped AC, the updated Vienna Prediction Model does not discriminate between patients who develop recurrent VTE and those who do not. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00973596.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > CTU Bern
04 Faculty of Medicine > Department of General Internal Medicine (DAIM) > Clinic of General Internal Medicine > Centre of Competence for General Internal Medicine

UniBE Contributor:

Tritschler, Tobias; Méan, Marie; Limacher, Andreas; Rodondi, Nicolas and Aujesky, Drahomir

ISSN:

0006-4971

Publisher:

American Society of Hematology

Language:

English

Submitter:

Jacques Donzé

Date Deposited:

23 Feb 2016 16:33

Last Modified:

08 Mar 2016 16:04

Publisher DOI:

10.1182/blood-2015-04-641225

PubMed ID:

26341256

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.77317

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/77317

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