Air pollution modelling for birth cohorts: a time-space regression model.

Proietti, Elena; Delgado-Eckert, Edgar; Vienneau, Danielle; Stern, Georgette; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Latzin, Philipp; Frey, Urs; Röösli, Martin (2016). Air pollution modelling for birth cohorts: a time-space regression model. Environmental health, 15(1), p. 61. BioMed Central 10.1186/s12940-016-0145-9

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BACKGROUND To investigate air pollution effects during pregnancy or in the first weeks of life, models are needed that capture both the spatial and temporal variability of air pollution exposures. METHODS We developed a time-space exposure model for ambient NO2 concentrations in Bern, Switzerland. We used NO2 data from passive monitoring conducted between 1998 and 2009: 101 rural sites (24,499 biweekly measurements) and 45 urban sites (4350 monthly measurements). We evaluated spatial predictors (land use; roads; traffic; population; annual NO2 from a dispersion model) and temporal predictors (meteorological conditions; NO2 from continuous monitoring station). Separate rural and urban models were developed by multivariable regression techniques. We performed ten-fold internal cross-validation, and an external validation using 57 NO2 passive measurements obtained at study participant's homes. RESULTS Traffic related explanatory variables and fixed site NO2 measurements were the most relevant predictors in both models. The coefficient of determination (R(2)) for the log transformed models were 0.63 (rural) and 0.54 (urban); cross-validation R(2)s were unchanged indicating robust coefficient estimates. External validation showed R(2)s of 0.54 (rural) and 0.67 (urban). CONCLUSIONS This approach is suitable for air pollution exposure prediction in epidemiologic research with time-vulnerable health effects such as those occurring during pregnancy or in the first weeks of life.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Department of Gynaecology, Paediatrics and Endocrinology (DFKE) > Clinic of Paediatric Medicine
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04 Faculty of Medicine > Department of Gynaecology, Paediatrics and Endocrinology (DFKE) > Clinic of Paediatric Medicine > Paediatric Pneumology

Graduate School:

Graduate School for Cellular and Biomedical Sciences (GCB)

UniBE Contributor:

Proietti, Elena and Latzin, Philipp

Subjects:

600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health
500 Science
500 Science > 510 Mathematics
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology
500 Science > 570 Life sciences; biology

ISSN:

1476-069X

Publisher:

BioMed Central

Funders:

[42] Schweizerischer Nationalfonds

Language:

English

Submitter:

Romy Melanie Rodriguez Del Rio

Date Deposited:

01 Nov 2016 15:24

Last Modified:

25 Jan 2018 07:23

Publisher DOI:

10.1186/s12940-016-0145-9

PubMed ID:

27225793

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Air pollution; Birth cohort; Exposure; NO2; Pregnancy

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.89761

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/89761

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