Assessment of deterministic PMF modelling approaches

Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf (2017). Assessment of deterministic PMF modelling approaches. Hydrological sciences journal / Journal des sciences hydrologiques, 62(10), pp. 1591-1602. Taylor & Francis 10.1080/02626667.2017.1319065

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Probable maximum flood (PMF) event estimation has challenged the scientific community for many years. Although the concept of the PMF is often applied, there is no consensus on the methods that should be applied to estimate it. In PMF estimation, the spatio-temporal representation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) as well as the choice of modelling approach is often not theoretically founded. Moreover, it is not clear how these choices influence PMF estimation itself. In this study, combinations of three different spatio-temporal PMP representations and three different modelling approaches are applied to determine the PMF of a mesoscale basin keeping the antecedent catchment conditions and the total precipitation amount constant. The nine resulting PMF estimations are used to evaluate each combination of methods. The results show that basic methods allow for a rough estimation of the PMF. In cases where a physically plausible and reliable estimation is required, sophisticated PMP and PMF estimation approaches are recommended.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Hydrology
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography

UniBE Contributor:

Felder, Guido and Weingartner, Rolf

Subjects:

900 History > 910 Geography & travel
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology

ISSN:

0262-6667

Publisher:

Taylor & Francis

Language:

English

Submitter:

Monika Wälti-Stampfli

Date Deposited:

18 May 2017 11:06

Last Modified:

13 Apr 2018 02:30

Publisher DOI:

10.1080/02626667.2017.1319065

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.99430

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/99430

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