Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis.

Turk, Teja; Bachmann, Nadine; Kadelka, Claus; Böni, Jürg; Yerly, Sabine; Aubert, Vincent; Klimkait, Thomas; Battegay, Manuel; Bernasconi, Enos; Calmy, Alexandra; Cavassini, Matthias; Furrer, Hansjakob; Hoffmann, Matthias; Günthard, Huldrych F; Kouyos, Roger D (2017). Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis. eLife, 6 eLife Sciences Publications 10.7554/eLife.28721

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Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42-0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%-17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Department of Haematology, Oncology, Infectious Diseases, Laboratory Medicine and Hospital Pharmacy (DOLS) > Clinic of Infectiology

UniBE Contributor:

Furrer, Hansjakob

Subjects:

600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health

ISSN:

2050-084X

Publisher:

eLife Sciences Publications

Language:

English

Submitter:

Annelies Luginbühl

Date Deposited:

22 Nov 2017 09:05

Last Modified:

22 Nov 2017 09:13

Publisher DOI:

10.7554/eLife.28721

PubMed ID:

28895527

Uncontrolled Keywords:

epidemiology global health infectious disease microbiology viruses

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.105475

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/105475

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