Methods to calculate uncertainty in the estimated overall effect size from a random-effects meta-analysis.

Veroniki, Areti Angeliki; Jackson, Dan; Bender, Ralf; Kuss, Oliver; Langan, Dean; Higgins, Julian P T; Knapp, Guido; Salanti, Georgia (2019). Methods to calculate uncertainty in the estimated overall effect size from a random-effects meta-analysis. Research Synthesis Methods, 10(1), pp. 23-43. Wiley 10.1002/jrsm.1319

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Meta-analyses are an important tool within systematic reviews to estimate the overall effect size and its confidence interval for an outcome of interest. If heterogeneity between the results of the relevant studies is anticipated, then a random-effects model is often preferred for analysis. In this model, a prediction interval for the true effect in a new study also provides additional useful information. However, the DerSimonian and Laird method - frequently used as the default method for meta-analyses with random effects - has been long challenged due to its unfavourable statistical properties. Several alternative methods have been proposed that may have better statistical properties in specific scenarios. In this paper, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of available methods for calculating point estimates, confidence intervals and prediction intervals for the overall effect size under the random-effects model. We indicate whether some methods are preferable than others by considering the results of comparative simulation and real-life data studies.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM)

UniBE Contributor:

Salanti, Georgia

Subjects:

600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health
300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services

ISSN:

1759-2879

Publisher:

Wiley

Language:

English

Submitter:

Tanya Karrer

Date Deposited:

28 Aug 2018 14:03

Last Modified:

24 Oct 2019 08:16

Publisher DOI:

10.1002/jrsm.1319

PubMed ID:

30129707

Uncontrolled Keywords:

confidence interval evidence synthesis meta-analysis overall treatment effect random effects

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.119524

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/119524

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