Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes

Zscheischler, Jakob; Naveau, Philippe; Martius, Olivia; Engelke, Sebastian; Raible, Christoph C. (2021). Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes. Earth system dynamics, 12(1), pp. 1-16. Copernicus Publications 10.5194/esd-12-1-2021

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Estimating the likelihood of compound climate extremes such as concurrent drought and heatwaves or compound precipitation and wind speed extremes is important for assessing climate risks. Typically, simulations from climate models are used to assess future risks, but it is largely unknown how well the current generation of models represents compound extremes. Here, we introduce a new metric that measures whether the tails of bivariate distributions show a similar dependence structure across different datasets. We analyse com-pound precipitation and wind extremes in reanalysis data and different high-resolution simulations for central Europe. A state-of-the-art reanalysis dataset (ERA5) is compared to simulations with a weather model (Weather Research and Forecasting – WRF) either driven by observation-based boundary conditions or a global circulation model (Community Earth System Model – CESM) under present-day and future conditions with strong greenhouse gas forcing (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 – RCP8.5). Over the historical period, the high-resolution WRF simulations capture precipitation and wind extremes as well as their response to orographic effects more realistically than ERA5. Thus, WRF simulations driven by observation-based boundary conditions are used as a benchmark for evaluating the dependence structure of wind and precipitation extremes. Overall, boundary conditions in WRF appear to be the key factor in explaining differences in the dependence behaviour between strong wind and heavy precipitation between simulations. In comparison, external forcings (RCP8.5) are of second order. Our approach offers new methodological tools to evaluate climate model simulations with respect to compound extremes.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Impact
08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography
08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute

UniBE Contributor:

Zscheischler, Jakob; Romppainen-Martius, Olivia and Raible, Christoph

Subjects:

500 Science > 530 Physics
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology
900 History > 910 Geography & travel

ISSN:

2190-4979

Publisher:

Copernicus Publications

Funders:

[4] Swiss National Science Foundation

Projects:

[1295] New metrics for constraining multiple drivers of hazard and compound hazards Official URL
[UNSPECIFIED] Climate and Environmental Physics: Pleistocene Earth System Evolution
[UNSPECIFIED] Persistent atmospheric flow situations and temporal clustering of precipitation extremes
[245] Mobiliar Lab für Naturrisiken Official URL

Language:

English

Submitter:

Jakob Zscheischler

Date Deposited:

01 Feb 2021 16:44

Last Modified:

07 Feb 2021 03:02

Publisher DOI:

10.5194/esd-12-1-2021

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/150838

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/150838

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