Was retrospective change measurement conducted with Covid-19 containment inconsistent? Comparing prospective and retrospective change measures using data from a national survey on substance use and addictive behaviors.

Dupuis, Marc; Studer, Joseph; Wicki, Matthias; Marmet, Simon; Gmel, Gerhard (2023). Was retrospective change measurement conducted with Covid-19 containment inconsistent? Comparing prospective and retrospective change measures using data from a national survey on substance use and addictive behaviors. PLoS ONE, 18(6), e0286597. Public Library of Science 10.1371/journal.pone.0286597

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Single-measurement-point data collection to assess change has increased with studies assessing the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and of its containment, despite evidence of its lack of validity. Retrospective change is not equivalent to change in repeated self-reported measures giving raise to questions about the validity of the former. This paper purports to investigate inconsistencies between change measures by confronting retrospective change to information from longitudinally self-reported measures from the C-SURF cohort study. The study sample consists of 2,279 young men who participated in C-SURF between 2020 and 2021, and completed between May and June 2021 a survey covering change in alcohol, cigarette, cannabis and other addictive behaviors related to the pandemic. The aforementioned behaviors were assessed longitudinally at two time points using self-reports, and retrospective change since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis was also assessed at the second measurement time. Information from both prospective and retrospective change measures were confronted to identify inconsistent information for each behavior. Additionally, multiple logistic regressions were performed to assess associations between socioeconomic status, impulsivity, depression, and different indicators of motivation to complete the study and inconsistency between both measures for each behavior of interest. Importantly, inconsistent information in at least one of the investigated behaviors was found in about 90% of the participants. Small associations were found between inconsistency and different factors with a consistent effect of impulsivity. In the absence of evidence of the validity of retrospective change measures, studies relying on retrospective change should be interpreted with caution.

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