Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review

Tuel, Alexandre; Martius, Olivia (20 February 2023). Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review (EGUsphere). Copernicus 10.5194/egusphere-2023-111

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Persistence is an important concept in meteorology. It refers to surface weather or the atmospheric circulation either remaining in approximately the same state (stationarity) or repeatedly occupying the same state (recurrence) over some prolonged period of time. Persistence can be found at many different timescales; however, the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is especially relevant in terms of impacts and atmospheric predictability. For these reasons, S2S persistence has been attracting increasing attention by the scientific community. The dynamics responsible for persistence and their potential evolution under climate change are a notable focus of active research. However, one important challenge facing the community is how to define persistence, from both a qualitative and quantitative perspective. Despite a general agreement on the concept, many different definitions and perspectives have been proposed over the years, among which it is not always easy to find one’s way. The purpose of this review is to present and discuss existing concepts of weather persistence, associated methodologies and physical interpretations. In particular, we call attention to the fact that persistence can be defined as a global or as a local property of a system, with important implications in terms of methods but also impacts. We also highlight the importance of timescale and similarity metric selection, and illustrate some of the concepts using the example of summertime atmospheric circulation over Western Europe

Item Type:

Working Paper

Division/Institute:

10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) > MobiLab
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Impact
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography

UniBE Contributor:

Tuel, Alexandre, Romppainen-Martius, Olivia

Subjects:

900 History > 910 Geography & travel
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology
500 Science

Series:

EGUsphere

Publisher:

Copernicus

Funders:

[4] Swiss National Science Foundation

Language:

English

Submitter:

Lara Maude Zinkl

Date Deposited:

08 Jun 2023 09:20

Last Modified:

14 Sep 2024 06:56

Publisher DOI:

10.5194/egusphere-2023-111

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/183204

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/183204

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