A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests

Goller, Daniel; Heiniger, Sandro (2024). A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests. Annals of operations research, 341(1), pp. 71-93. Springer 10.1007/s10479-023-05540-x

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We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not
provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through scheduling and the reward
structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the framework to primary elections in
the US, where earlier elections have greater importance and influence, we show that schedule
variations can mitigate the problem of front-loading elections. When applied to European
football, we demonstrate the utility and meaningfulness of quantified event importance in
relation to the in-match performance of contestants to improve outcome prediction and to
provide an early indication of public interest.

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