Modeling transmission dynamics and human behavior during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland

Reichmuth, Martina L (2024). Modeling transmission dynamics and human behavior during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland (Unpublished). (Dissertation, University of Bern, the Faculty of Medicine, the Faculty of Science and the Vetsuisse Faculty)

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Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syn-
drome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has posed an unprecedented threat to public health,
the economy, and society at large. In response to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2,
Switzerland, in line with many other countries, implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions
(NPIs) such as face masks and bans on gatherings. Later, vaccine and natural
infection induced immunity in the population protect from COVID-19. Nevertheless, the
spread of SARS-CoV-2 enabled evolution and the emergence of variants of concern
(VoCs). The complexity of transmission, human behavior, control measures, and their
interaction led to many unanswered questions about the spread and consequences of
COVID-19 in Switzerland.

Understanding the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for mitigating transmission and
ultimately preventing severe cases and deaths. Modeling in infectious diseases can support
collected data such as surveillance data and offer the possibility to study gaps in
observations. The aim of this doctoral thesis was to gain insights into the SARS-CoV-2
epidemic in Switzerland, in particular, the local impact of imported cases, the impact of
control measures on the spread of VoCs, changes in social contact patterns, and associations
with vaccination uptake. To this end, I explored a variety of data such as (genomic)
surveillance and survey data, and different methods including transmission and regression
models.

Overall, the cross-disciplinary approach employed in this thesis provided evidence that
imported cases significantly impacted the local SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during a period of
low incidence (in chapter 2). Implementing border closures following the announcement
of VoCs would have had limited impact on delaying their spread (in chapter 3). During
the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic the number of social contacts was substantially reduced
compared to pre-pandemic times (in chapter 4). Sociodemographic factors as well as
individual behaviors and attitudes played an important role in COVID-19 vaccination uptake
(in chapter 5). Finally, modeling provides evidence that can in collaboration with
authorities improve public health

Item Type:	Thesis (Dissertation)
Division/Institute:	04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM)
Graduate School:	Graduate School for Cellular and Biomedical Sciences (GCB)
UniBE Contributor:	Reichmuth, Martina Larissa, Althaus, Christian
Subjects:	600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health 300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services
Language:	English
Submitter:	Beatrice Minder Wyssmann
Date Deposited:	03 Jul 2024 12:12
Last Modified:	03 Jul 2024 12:13
Additional Information:	PhD in Biomedical Sciences
Uncontrolled Keywords:	SARS-CoV-2; epidemiology; transmission; control measures; behavior; vaccination; importation; variants of concern; Switzerland.
URI:	https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/198436