Non-tariff barriers, integration and the transatlantic economy

Egger, Peter; Francois, Joseph; Manchin, Miriam; Nelson, Douglas (2015). Non-tariff barriers, integration and the transatlantic economy. Economic Policy, 30(83), pp. 539-584. Oxford University Press 10.1093/epolic/eiv008

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We examine the potential impact of TTIP through trade-cost reductions, applying a mix of econometric and computational methods to develop estimates of the benefits (and costs) for the EU, United States, and third countries. Econometric results point to an approximate 80% growth in bilateral trade with an ambitious trade agreement. However, at the same time, computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates highlight distributional impacts across countries and factors not evident from econometrics alone. Translated through our CGE framework, while bilateral trade increases roughly 80%, there is a fall of about 2.5% in trade with the rest of the world in our central case. The estimated gains in annual consumption range between 1% and 2.25% for the United States and EU, respectively. A purely discriminatory agreement would harm most countries outside the agreement, while the direction of third-country effects hinges critically on whether NTB reductions end up being discriminatory or not. Within the United States and EU, while labour gains across skill categories, the impact on farmers is mixed.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

03 Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences > Other Institutions > Teaching Staff, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences
02 Faculty of Law > Department of Economic Law > World Trade Institute
10 Strategic Research Centers > World Trade Institute

02 Faculty of Law > Department of Economic Law > NCCR International Trade Regulation

UniBE Contributor:

Egger, Peter and Francois, Joseph

Subjects:

300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 340 Law
300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 380 Commerce, communications & transportation
300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 330 Economics

ISSN:

0266-4658

Publisher:

Oxford University Press

Language:

English

Submitter:

Rebecca Anne Gilgen

Date Deposited:

24 Jun 2016 11:20

Last Modified:

22 Oct 2019 19:07

Publisher DOI:

10.1093/epolic/eiv008

Related URLs:

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.83767

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/83767

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