Stratospheric age of air variations between 1600 and 2100

Muthers, S.; Kuchar, A.; Stenke, A.; Schmitt, J.; Anet, J. G.; Raible, C. C.; Stocker, T. F. (2016). Stratospheric age of air variations between 1600 and 2100. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(10), pp. 5409-5418. American Geophysical Union 10.1002/2016GL068734

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The current understanding of preindustrial stratospheric age of air (AoA), its variability, and the potential natural forcing imprint on AoA is very limited. Here we assess the influence of natural and anthropogenic forcings on AoA using ensemble simulations for the period 1600 to 2100 and sensitivity simulations for different forcings. The results show that from 1900 to 2100, CO₂ and ozone-depleting substances are the dominant drivers of AoA variability. With respect to natural forcings, volcanic eruptions cause the largest AoA variations on time scales of several years, reducing the age in the middle and upper
stratosphere and increasing the age below. The effect of the solar forcing on AoA is small and dominated by multidecadal total solar irradiance variations, which correlate negatively with AoA. Additionally, a very weak positive relationship driven by ultraviolett variations is found, which is dominant for the 11 year cycle of solar variability.

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