Geostatistical analysis and isoscape of ice core derived water stable isotope records in an Antarctic macro region

Hatvani, István Gábor; Leuenberger, Markus; Kohán, Balázs; Kern, Zoltán (2017). Geostatistical analysis and isoscape of ice core derived water stable isotope records in an Antarctic macro region. Polar science, 13, pp. 23-32. Elsevier Science 10.1016/j.polar.2017.04.001

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Water stable isotopes preserved in ice cores provide essential information about polar precipitation. In the present study, multivariate regression and variogram analyses were conducted on 22 delta²H and 53 delta¹⁸O records from 60 ice cores covering the second half of the 20th century. Taking the multicollinearity of the explanatory variables into account, as also the model's adjusted R² and its mean absolute error, longitude, elevation and distance from the coast were found to be the main independent geographical driving factors governing the spatial delta¹⁸O variability of firn/ice in the chosen Antarctic macro region. After diminishing the effects of these factors, using variography, the weights for interpolation with kriging were obtained and the spatial autocorrelation structure of the dataset was revealed. This indicates an average area of influence with a radius of 350 km. This allows the determination of the areas which are as yet not covered by the spatial variability of the existing network of ice cores. Finally, the regional isoscape was obtained for the study area, and this may be considered the first step towards a geostatistically improved isoscape for Antarctica.

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