Combination of Different Proxies for Estimating Demographic Development in the Transition to the Bronze Age on the Iberian Peninsula

Hinz, Martin; Kneisel, Jutta; Schirrmacher, Julien; Weinelt, Mara (8 September 2018). Combination of Different Proxies for Estimating Demographic Development in the Transition to the Bronze Age on the Iberian Peninsula (Unpublished). In: 24th Annual Meeting of the European Association of Archaeologists. Barcelona. 5.-8. September 2018.

In many parts of the Iberian Peninsula, the transition from the Copper Age to the Bronze Age is marked by profound demographic
changes. Although the local conditions and cultural development can vary greatly, the Iberian Peninsula can be divided into two
zones. Especially in the south, which has been a hotspot of archaeological investigations for decades, a clear increase in settlement
evidence can be observed for the Copper Age. With the transition to the Bronze Age, different trajectories become clear within the
southern region: In the South West there is a widespread abandonment of settlements and discontinuity. Wherever stratigraphic
continuity is evident, a significant change can be found in the archaeological material within a site. The rapid spread of early Bronze
Age cultures on the southeastern Iberian Peninsula seems to be accompanied by a demographic boom. This can be derived from
regional land use reconstructions and estimates of grain production. This is accompanied by signs of a highly stratifying society with
control over resources and food production.
By means of aoristic analyses and 14C cumulative calibrations we try to understand these changes in more detail and to investigate
whether climatic influences and the resulting population shifts may have played a role. To this end, we combine the existing evidence
from different data sources and proxies, such as changed economic conditions, abandonment of settlements and palaeobotanical
predictions of human influence, in a common quantitative framework in order to estimate and test temporal relationships and cau-
sality. The observed correlations are tested for their statistical significance using a Monte Carlo-based method. Firstly, we can sug-
gest that a combination of environmental influences and socio-economic reconfiguration is likely to trigger the demographic shifts.

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