Using position data to estimate effects of contextual features on passing decisions in football

Steiner, Silvan; Rauh, Stephan; Rumo, Martin; Sonderegger, Karin; Seiler, Roland (2018). Using position data to estimate effects of contextual features on passing decisions in football (Submitted). Current Issues in Sport Science, 3, pp. 1-9. Innsbruck University Press 10.15203/CISS_2018.009

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Passes are a performance-relevant parameter in many team sports. They must be played in the highly dynamic and unpredictable contexts of interactive team competitions. The difficulty to plan passes in advance requires real-time decisions and highlights the importance of the information provided by current game contexts. This study estimates the relation between contextual information and passing decisions by analyzing position data of 1379 passing situations tracked during football competitions. In support of previous findings of a scenario-based investigation, open passing lanes, spatial proximity to the ball carrier, team members’ positions in front of the ball carrier, and loose defense by opposing players all significantly increased team members’ odds for receiving passes. In the total sample, the four kinds of contextual information enabled the correct prediction of 41% of the passes played. The prediction rate compares to a base rate of 11% and is substantially higher than that reported for passing decisions made in static game scenarios. Separate analyses of passes categorized according to teams, playing positions, and playfield zones revealed that spatial proximity and open passing lanes were significantly related to passing decisions in all pass categories, while effects of positions in front of the ball carrier and loose defense were found less constantly. Shedding light on the relationship between position-related information and passing decisions, the results indicate what contextual information may help in anticipating passing decisions and ways in which team members may affect these decisions by actively taking corresponding positions.

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