Predicting Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Deep-Vein Thrombosis: Development and Internal Validation of a Potential New Prediction Model (Continu-8).

Nagler, Michael; Van Kuijk, Sander M J; Ten Cate, Hugo; Prins, Martin H; Ten Cate-Hoek, Arina J (2021). Predicting Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Deep-Vein Thrombosis: Development and Internal Validation of a Potential New Prediction Model (Continu-8). Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine, 8, p. 655226. Frontiers 10.3389/fcvm.2021.655226

Preview

Text 2021_Front_Cardiovasc_Med_Nagler.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution (CC-BY). Download (933kB) | Preview

Background: Previous prediction models for recurrent thromboembolism (VTE) are often complicated to apply and have not been implemented widely. Aim: To develop and internally validate a potential new prediction model for recurrent VTE that can be used without stopping anticoagulant treatment for D-dimer measurements in patients with provoked and unprovoked DVT. Methods: Cohort data of 479 patients treated in a clinical care pathway at Maastricht University Medical Center were used. Predictors for the Cox proportional hazards model (unprovoked DVT, male gender, factor VIII levels) were derived from literature and using forward selection procedure. The scoring rule was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques and the predictive ability was compared to existing prediction models. Results: Patients were followed for a median of 3.12 years after stopping anticoagulation treatment (IQR 0.78, 3.90). Sixty-four of 479 patients developed recurrent VTE (13%). The scoring rule consisted of unprovoked DVT (yes: 2 points), male sex (yes: 1 point), and factor VIII > 213 % (yes: 2 points) and was categorized into three groups [i.e., low risk (score 0), medium risk (scores 1, 2, or 3) and high risk (scores 4 and 5)]. The concordance statistic was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.75). Conclusion: The discriminative ability of the new Continu-8 score was adequate. Future studies shall verify this score in an independent setting without stopping anticoagulation treatment.

Interest & Impact

Downloads

166 since deposited on 13 Aug 2021
125 in the past 12 months

Citations

5 Citations in Web of Science ®
6 Citations in Scopus

Search

in Google Scholar™

Services

Actions (login required)

Edit item

Actions (login required)

Edit item