Real interest rates and demographic developments across generations: A panel-data analysis over two centuries

Fuhrer, Lucas; Herger, Nils (2021). Real interest rates and demographic developments across generations: A panel-data analysis over two centuries SNB Working Papers

Full text not available from this repository.

This paper empirically examines the effect of population growth on long-term real
interest rates. Although this effect is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous and surprisingly unstable. As the demographic interest rate impact is theoretically based on intergenerational relationships, we not only
contemplate gross population growth rates but also distinguish between demographic growth resulting from a birth surplus and net migration. Within a panel covering 12 countries and the years since 1820, our results suggest that there is a positive, statistically significant, and stable effect from the birth surplus on real interest rates. Conversely, the corresponding effect of net migration seems to be much more volatile. Hence, our results suggest that it is mainly population growth occurring through a birth surplus that affects the equilibrium real interest rate.

Item Type:

Working Paper

Division/Institute:

03 Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences > Department of Economics

UniBE Contributor:

Herger, Nils

Subjects:

300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 330 Economics

ISSN:

1660-7724

Publisher:

SNB Working Papers

Language:

English

Submitter:

Dino Collalti

Date Deposited:

31 Jan 2022 08:42

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2022 16:01

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/163803

Actions (login required)

Edit item Edit item
Provide Feedback