Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Bedka, Kristopher; Lhermitte, Stef; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M. (2016). Hazardous thunderstorm intensification over Lake Victoria. Nature communications, 7(1) Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/NCOMMS12786
|
Text
ncomms12786.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution (CC-BY). Download (2MB) | Preview |
Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria, where thousands of fishermen die every year because of intense night-time thunderstorms. Yet how these thunderstorms will evolve in a future warmer climate is still unknown. Here we show that Lake Victoria is projected to be a hotspot of future extreme precipitation intensification by using new satellite-based observations, a high-resolution climate projection for the African Great Lakes and coarser-scale ensemble projections. Land precipitation on the previous day exerts a control on night-time occurrence of extremes on the lake by enhancing atmospheric convergence (74%) and moisture availability (26%). The future increase in extremes over Lake Victoria is about twice as large relative to surrounding land under a high-emission scenario, as only over-lake moisture advection is high enough to sustain Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. Our results highlight a major hazard associated with climate change over East Africa and underline the need for high-resolution projections to assess local climate change.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
|---|---|
UniBE Contributor: |
Davin, Édouard Léopold |
ISSN: |
2041-1723 |
Publisher: |
Nature Publishing Group |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
�douard Léopold Davin |
Date Deposited: |
26 Apr 2022 13:26 |
Last Modified: |
05 Dec 2022 16:14 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1038/NCOMMS12786 |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/167139 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/167139 |
Actions (login required)
 |
Edit item |