The Future Failed: No Evidence for Precognition in a Large Scale Replication Attempt of Bem (2011)

Muhmenthaler, Michèle C.; Dubravac, Mirela; Meier, Beat (2022). The Future Failed: No Evidence for Precognition in a Large Scale Replication Attempt of Bem (2011). Psychology of consciousness : Theory, Research, and Practice, pp. 1-17. American Psychological Association 10.1037/cns0000342

Text The_Future_Failed__No_Evidence_for_Precognition_in_a_Large_Scale_Replication_Attempt_of_Bem__2011____2_.pdf - Published Version Restricted to registered users only Available under License Publisher holds Copyright. Download (875kB)

Precognition describes the ability to anticipate information about a future event before
this event occurs. The goal of our study was to test the occurrence of precognition by
trying to replicate three experiments of the most central study in the field (Bem, 2011,
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology). In this study, Bem time-reversed wellestablished psychological effects so that a “causal” stimulus appeared after the participants gave their response. We conducted two priming experiments and a free recall
experiment in the backward “precognition” version and, as a control manipulation, in the
classic forward version. More than 2000 participants participated via the Internet; thus,
our study had high statistical power. The results showed no precognition effects at all. We
further conducted exploratory post hoc analyses on different variables and questionnaire
items and found some significant effects. Further studies should validate these potentially
interesting findings by using theory-driven hypotheses, preregistrations, and confirmatory data analyses.

Interest & Impact

Downloads

2 since deposited on 11 Oct 2022
1 in the past 12 months

Citations

5 Citations in Web of Science ®
6 Citations in Scopus

Search

in Google Scholar™

Services

Actions (login required)

Edit item

Actions (login required)

Edit item