Global Climate Projections

Meehl, Gerald A.; Stocker, Thomas F.; Collins, William D.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gaye, Amadou T.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Kitoh, Akio; Knutti, Reto; Murphy, James M.; Noda, Akira; Raper, Sarah C.B.; Watterson, Ian G.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Zhao, Zong-Ci (2007). Global Climate Projections. In: Solomon, Susan; Qin, Dahe; Manning, Martin; Marquis, Melinda; Averyt, Kristen; Tignor, Melinda M.B.; Miller, Jr., Henry LeRoy; Chen, Zhenlin (eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 747-845). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

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The future climate change results assessed in this chapter are based on a hierarchy of models, ranging from Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) to Simple Climate Models (SCMs). These models are forced with concentrations of greenhouse gases and other constituents derived from various emissions scenarios ranging from non- mitigation scenarios to idealised long-term scenarios. In general, we assess non-mitigated projections of future climate change at scales from global to hundreds of kilometres. Further assessments of regional and local climate changes are provided in Chapter 11. Due to an unprecedented, joint effort by many modelling groups worldwide, climate change projections are now based on multi-model means, differences between models can be assessed quantitatively and in some instances, estimates of the probability of change of important climate system parameters complement expert judgement. New results corroborate those given in the Third Assessment Report (TAR). Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates will cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

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