Simulating effects of land use changes on carbon fluxes: past contributions to atmospheric CO2 increases and future commitments due to losses of terrestrial sink capacity

Strassmann, K. M.; Joos, Fortunat; Fischer, G. (2008). Simulating effects of land use changes on carbon fluxes: past contributions to atmospheric CO2 increases and future commitments due to losses of terrestrial sink capacity. Tellus. Series B - chemical and physical meteorology, 60(4), pp. 583-603. Copenhagen: Munksgaard 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2008.00340.x

[img] Text
Simulating_effects_of_land_use_changes_on_carbon_fluxes_past_contributions_to_atmospheric_CO2_increases_and_future_commitments_due_to_losses_of.pdf - Published Version
Restricted to registered users only
Available under License Publisher holds Copyright.

Download (1MB) | Request a copy

The impact of land use on the global carbon cycle and climate is assessed. The Bern carbon cycle-climate model was used with land use maps from HYDE3.0 for 1700 to 2000 A.D. and from post-SRES scenarios for this century. Cropland and pasture expansion each cause about half of the simulated net carbon emissions of 188 Gt C over the industrial period and 1.1 Gt C yr-1 in the 1990s, implying a residual terrestrial sink of 113 Gt C and of 1.8 Gt C yr-1, respectively. Direct CO2 emissions due to land conversion as simulated in book-keeping models dominate carbon fluxes due to land use in the past. They are, however, mitigated by 25% through the feedback of increased atmospheric CO2 stimulating uptake. CO2 stimulated sinks are largely lost when natural lands are converted. Past land use change has eliminated potential future carbon sinks equivalent to emissions of 80–150 Gt C over this century. They represent a commitment of past land use change, which accounts for 70% of the future land use flux in the scenarios considered. Pre-industrial land use emissions are estimated to 45 Gt C at most, implying a maximum change in Holocene atmospheric CO2 of 3 ppm. This is not compatible with the hypothesis that early anthropogenic CO2 emissions prevented a new glacial period.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics

UniBE Contributor:

Strassmann, Kuno, Joos, Fortunat

Subjects:

500 Science > 530 Physics
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology

ISSN:

0280-6509

Publisher:

Munksgaard

Language:

English

Submitter:

Factscience Import

Date Deposited:

04 Oct 2013 15:23

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2022 14:25

Publisher DOI:

10.1111/j.1600-0889.2008.00340.x

Web of Science ID:

000259575400010

BORIS DOI:

10.48350/37313

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/37313 (FactScience: 207487)

Actions (login required)

Edit item Edit item
Provide Feedback