CO2 and non-CO2 radiative forcings in climate projections for twenty-first century mitigation scenarios

Strassmann, Kuno M.; Plattner, G.-K.; Joos, F. (2009). CO2 and non-CO2 radiative forcings in climate projections for twenty-first century mitigation scenarios. Climate dynamics, 33(6), pp. 737-749. Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag 10.1007/s00382-008-0505-4

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Climate is simulated for reference and mitigation emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models using the Bern2.5CC carbon cycle–climate model. Mitigation options encompass all major radiative forcing agents. Temperature change is attributed to forcings using an impulse–response substitute of Bern2.5CC. The contribution of CO2 to global warming increases over the century in all scenarios. Non-CO2 mitigation measures add to the abatement of global warming. The share of mitigation carried by CO2, however, increases when radiative forcing targets are lowered, and increases after 2000 in all mitigation scenarios. Thus, non-CO2 mitigation is limited and net CO2 emissions must eventually subside. Mitigation rapidly reduces the sulfate aerosol loading and associated cooling, partly masking Greenhouse Gas mitigation over the coming decades. A profound effect of mitigation on CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, temperatures and the rate of climate change emerges in the second half of the century.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)

UniBE Contributor:

Strassmann, Kuno, Joos, Fortunat

ISSN:

0930-7575

Publisher:

Springer-Verlag

Language:

English

Submitter:

Factscience Import

Date Deposited:

04 Oct 2013 15:23

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2022 14:25

Publisher DOI:

10.1007/s00382-008-0505-4

Web of Science ID:

000270684100001

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.37496

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/37496 (FactScience: 208757)

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