Impact of global atmospheric reanalyses on statistical precipitation downscaling

Horton, Pascal; Brönnimann, Stefan (2018). Impact of global atmospheric reanalyses on statistical precipitation downscaling. Climate dynamics, 52(9-10), pp. 5189-5211. Springer-Verlag 10.1007/s00382-018-4442-6

[img] Text
Horton-Brönnimann2018_Article_ImpactOfGlobalAtmosphericReana.pdf - Published Version
Restricted to registered users only
Available under License Publisher holds Copyright.

Download (6MB) | Request a copy
[img]
Preview
Text
template.pdf - Accepted Version
Available under License Publisher holds Copyright.

Download (3MB) | Preview
[img]
Preview
Text
supplementary.pdf - Supplemental Material
Available under License Publisher holds Copyright.

Download (220kB) | Preview

Statistical downscaling based on a perfect prognosis approach often relies on global reanalyses to infer the statistical relationship between synoptic predictors and the local variable of interest, here daily precipitation. Nowadays, many reanalyses are available and their impact on the downscaled variable is not often considered. The present work assessed the impact of ten reanalyses on the performance of seven variants of analogue methods for statistical precipitation downscaling at 301 stations in Switzerland. Even though the study location is in a data-rich region, significant differences were found between reanalyses and their impact on the performance of the method can be even higher than the choice of the predictor variables. There was no single overall winner, but a selection of recommended reanalyses resulting in higher skill scores depending on the considered predictor variables. The impact of the output spatial resolution was assessed for different types of variables. Output resolutions below one degree were found to be often of low to no interest. Reanalyses with longer archives allow the pool of potential analogues to be increased, resulting in better performance. However, when adding variables affected by errors in a more distant past, the skill score decreased again. The use of multiple members from two reanalyses was also tested over a recent and a past period. The benefit of using members to increase the performance by better incorporating the uncertainties was found to be limited, and even problematic with methods using multiple analogy levels.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Climatology
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography > Unit Hydrology
10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR)
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
08 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography > Physical Geography

UniBE Contributor:

Horton, Pascal and Brönnimann, Stefan

Subjects:

500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology
900 History > 910 Geography & travel

ISSN:

0930-7575

Publisher:

Springer-Verlag

Language:

English

Submitter:

Pascal Horton

Date Deposited:

25 Sep 2018 13:41

Last Modified:

19 Sep 2019 02:30

Publisher DOI:

10.1007/s00382-018-4442-6

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.120012

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/120012

Actions (login required)

Edit item Edit item
Provide Feedback