Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak.

Counotte, Michel J; Althaus, Christian L; Low, Nicola; Riou, Julien (2019). Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 13(12), e0007978. Public Library of Science 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978

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The 2015-2017 epidemics of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas caused widespread infection, followed by protective immunity. The timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak remains unclear. We used an agent-based model to simulate the dynamics of age-specific immunity to ZIKV, and predict the future age-specific risk using data from Managua, Nicaragua. We also investigated the potential impact of a ZIKV vaccine. Assuming lifelong immunity, the risk of a ZIKV outbreak will remain low until 2035 and rise above 50% in 2047. The imbalance in age-specific immunity implies that people in the 15-29 age range will be at highest risk of infection during the next ZIKV outbreak, increasing the expected number of congenital abnormalities. ZIKV vaccine development and licensure are urgent to attain the maximum benefit in reducing the population-level risk of infection and the risk of adverse congenital outcomes. This urgency increases if immunity is not lifelong.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

04 Faculty of Medicine > Pre-clinic Human Medicine > Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM)

Graduate School:

Graduate School for Cellular and Biomedical Sciences (GCB)

UniBE Contributor:

Counotte, Michel Jacques; Althaus, Christian; Low, Nicola and Riou, Julien Yannis

Subjects:

600 Technology > 610 Medicine & health
300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology > 360 Social problems & social services

ISSN:

1935-2727

Publisher:

Public Library of Science

Funders:

[4] Swiss National Science Foundation

Language:

English

Submitter:

Andrea Flükiger-Flückiger

Date Deposited:

09 Jan 2020 15:11

Last Modified:

04 Feb 2020 16:24

Publisher DOI:

10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978

PubMed ID:

31877200

BORIS DOI:

10.7892/boris.137920

URI:

https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/137920

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