Using Extreme Value Theory to Assess the Mortality Risk of Tornado Outbreaks

Gonçalves Sales, Vilane; Strobl, Eric (2023). Using Extreme Value Theory to Assess the Mortality Risk of Tornado Outbreaks. International journal of disaster risk science, 14(1), pp. 14-25. Springer 10.1007/s13753-023-00474-1

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The majority of tornado fatalities occur during severe thunderstorm occurrences that produce a large number of tornadoes, termed tornado outbreaks. This study used extreme value theory to estimate the impact of tornado outbreaks on fatalities while accounting for climate and demographic factors. The findings indicate that the number of fatalities increases with the increase of tornado outbreaks. Additionally, this study undertook a counterfactual analysis to determine what would have been the probability of a tornado outbreak under various climatic and demographic scenarios. The results of the counterfactual study indicate that the likelihood of increased mortality increases as the population forecast grows. Intensified El Niño events, on the other hand, reduce the likelihood of further fatalities. La Niña events are expected to increase probability of fatalities.

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