Woolway, R. Iestyn; Albergel, Clément; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Perroud, Marjorie (2022). Severe Lake Heatwaves Attributable to Human‐Induced Global Warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(4) American Geophysical Union 10.1029/2021GL097031
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Geophysical_Research_Letters_-_2022_-_Woolway_-_Severe_Lake_Heatwaves_Attributable_to_Human_E2_80_90Induced_Global_Warming.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution (CC-BY). Download (1MB) | Preview |
Much of the focus of global warming impacts on lakes have focused on changes in mean temperature. However, lakes are also highly vulnerable to thermal extremes. Such extremes occur, by definition, during lake heatwaves. Heatwaves in lakes have occurred globally in recent decades and have had severe negative impacts. However, unlike their atmospheric counterparts, it is currently unknown to what extent lake heatwaves are altered by human-induced climate change. Here, we estimate the human contribution to lake heatwaves, specifically focusing on the most severe events. We demonstrate that the occurrence probabilities of severe lake heatwaves increase substantially due to human influence. Our analysis suggests that 94% of severe heatwaves observed during the satellite data-taking period have an anthropogenic contribution. Globally, we suggest that severe heatwaves are 3 and 25- times more likely in a 1.5°C and 3.5°C warmer world, respectively, compared to a world without anthropogenic influence.
Item Type: |
Journal Article (Original Article) |
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Division/Institute: |
08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute > Climate and Environmental Physics 10 Strategic Research Centers > Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) 08 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute |
UniBE Contributor: |
Frölicher, Thomas |
Subjects: |
500 Science > 530 Physics 500 Science > 550 Earth sciences & geology |
ISSN: |
0094-8276 |
Publisher: |
American Geophysical Union |
Funders: |
[4] Swiss National Science Foundation |
Language: |
English |
Submitter: |
Thomas Frölicher |
Date Deposited: |
17 Mar 2022 12:15 |
Last Modified: |
05 Dec 2022 16:13 |
Publisher DOI: |
10.1029/2021GL097031 |
BORIS DOI: |
10.48350/166647 |
URI: |
https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/166647 |